GCSE fail grades predicted to rise

With GCSE results across the UK expected imminently, Professor Alan Smithers of the Centre for Education and Employment Research has predicted that more pupils will fail their GCSEs this year.

Top grades are expected to fall as results return to pre-pandemic levels. As with A-levels, extra help was provided for GCSE students with this years' return to exams, including more generous grading, advance information on topics, formulae and equation sheets for GCSE maths, physics and combined science exams.

However, Smithers said grades were expected to move back to around halfway between those of 2021 and 2019.

“In 2022, we can reasonably expect to see a drop in top grades, with many more failing to reach the pass level (C/4). In England, the biggest percentage fall will be at Grade 9 and many more will fall below Grade 4.

“We can take the A-level results as pointers. At A-level, the top grades were cut, but not as far as the government was wanting, I suspect because high marks were scored in the easier exams, and lower grades for higher marks is going to be difficult to defend on appeal.”

Figures covering GCSE entries will be published by the Joint Council for Qualifications (JCQ) on Thursday.