'Conditional unconditional’ offers continue to rise

For the first time, over a quarter of 18 year old applicants from England, Northern Ireland, and Wales have received a ‘conditional unconditional’ offer for an undergraduate place. However, they are less likely than ever to accept this type of offer.

Twenty-five per cent received at least one of these offers in 2019, which are initially made by the university as conditional, then updated to unconditional if the offer is accepted as the student’s first (firm) choice. This is an increase from 20.9 per cent in 2018.

Analysis published in ‘Unconditional Offers – The Applicant Experience’, as part of UCAS’ 2019 End of Cycle Report reveals that applicants are now only marginally more likely to choose a conditional unconditional offer as their firm choice than any other offer. For those applicants holding five offers that include just one conditional unconditional offer, only 20.6% of applicants chose to accept the conditional unconditional. This is down from 25.6% in 2014. Students with higher predicted grades are less likely to accept this type of offer than those with lower predicted grades.

While waiting for their exam results, applicants who held an unconditional firm choice are more likely to feel calmer and less stressed than those holding a conditional firm offer according to over 30,000 survey respondents.

However, in 2019, 43% of applicants holding a conditional firm offer missed their predicted A level attainment by three or more grades, compared to 57% of applicants holding an unconditional firm.

Clare Marchant, UCAS’ Chief Executive, said: "Students are considering their offers more carefully than ever, with the type of offer they receive having less of an impact than before. Our advice to students is to always think about what’s most important for them when deciding which offers to accept.
‘Unconditional offers remain a complex issue and our new insight will further inform the dialogue, forming a crucial contribution to the current admissions practice reviews. Their impact on attainment needs to be highlighted, though this must be seen alongside their role in widening participation activities and benefits to students’ mental health.

"Most regional entry rates across the country have increased, with many now at record levels. The enduring appeal of studying in the UK is clear globally too, as the number of international students from outside the EU exceeds 45,000 for the first time.

"It is particularly encouraging to see record entry rates of disadvantaged students starting university, and the equality gap at higher tariff narrow by a record 8% since last year. When looking at today’s numbers, we must remember that there are a variety of routes for young people today, with apprenticeships and technical education increasingly popular options. The new UCAS Hub can provide everyone with personalised and relevant information on the many choices available."