EPI analysis examines the challenges facing the teacher labour market

The Education Policy Institute (EPI) has published Analysis: Teacher labour market pressures which examines increasing exit rates and the decreasing numbers of teaching applicants, along with the impact that these trends are having on schools and students.

The analysis also looks at growing pressures due to increasing pupil numbers and the government's ‘ambition for 90% of GCSE pupils to be entered into the English Baccalaureate (EBacc) by 2025.

In 2016, around 50,000 teachers left their jobs in state-funded schools in England, to be replaced by around 50,000 new entrants. That makes for about 1 in 10 teachers replaced by a new teacher each year. This is before we account for the further 8 per cent of teachers who move school each year. In this analysis, we examine some of the acute challenges facing the teacher labour market, evidence of any impact this is having on schools and pupils, and the options for policymakers to mitigate the problems.

Between 2016 and 2026, the overall number of pupils is expected to grow by 11 per cent, with much faster growth in secondary schools (20 per cent) than in primary schools (4 per cent). To prevent class sizes from rising, the total number of teachers would also need to grow by a similar amount, with new entrants exceeding exits, rather than equalling them as they do at present.

Also highlighted in the analysis are worrying trends in terms of the teacher labour market; exit rates, it notes, have been edging up over time – between 2010 and 2016, there was an increase from around eight per cent to nine per cent in primaries and from 9.5% to 10.5% in secondaries. This combined with an increasing number of teachers choosing to cut their careers short and a drop in applicants to teacher training.

Commenting on the EPI's analysis, Geoff Barton, General Secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said:

“The EPI’s analysis shows the eye-watering scale of the challenge in having enough teachers for the soaring number of pupils over the next eight years. The government has repeatedly fallen short of its own targets for recruiting trainee teachers and we are then losing far too many teachers early in their careers. This situation is caused by a toxic mix of high levels of workload – driven largely by incessant reforms and a draconian accountability system – and years of pay austerity which have seen salaries fall in real terms.

“While the EPI is correct that the government should focus more attention on retention, we do not agree with its suggestion that ministers should consider targeting any additional funds on salary supplements for teachers in shortage subjects. Firstly, there are teacher shortages in many subjects. The government missed its initial teacher training targets in all but two secondary school subjects last year1. Secondly, the suggestion also opens up the possibility of teachers with similar workloads, who are equally committed to their pupils, earning different rates of pay. This would be extremely damaging to the morale of teachers disadvantaged by such a system, and potentially result in retention rates deteriorating in more poorly paid subjects.

“The solution to the teacher supply crisis does not lie in any single policy proposal. Instead, we must have an overarching strategy which includes easing teacher workload, improving career progression, and better rewarding all teachers after many years of pay austerity.”

Read more